000
FXUS62 KCAE 071135
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EST WED JAN  7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE REGION...IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING THE REGION TODAY. WINDS
ALREADY SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST AROUND 30 MPH. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS BY NOON. STRONG CAA THIS
AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT H850 JET SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD
MIXING. EXPECTING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY.
WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...JUST KEPT
WITH WORDING FOR THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL DAY TODAY. WOULD BE
CONFUSING TO HAVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THEN
WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BACK TO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

LAPS AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. SHEAR IS STRONG BUT
INSTABILITY IS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE...GIVEN STRONG
AMBIENT WINDS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKES. KEPT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WENT WITH CONSENSUS WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S TONIGHT AND IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SOME WEAKENING IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED
IN RECENT HOURS. STRONG S/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KTS
WILL SLACKEN A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH
AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
WS UNTIL AROUND 14Z. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
THUNDER AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD. EARLY MORNING ACARS SOUNDING
SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z BECOMING LESS THAN 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THU THRU SUN.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020022-025031-035038-041.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020022-025031-035038-041.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020022-025031-035038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063065-077.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063065-077.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ040-063065-077.